They set the tone by the policies that they set. Ex. Sarbanes-Oxley has driven money away from the U.S. stock markets and IPO market into other markets, thus hurting the long term prospects for the U.S. dollar. Europe has been more favorable to corporations, so money has flowed there and not to America as much due to this.
They set the tone by what they do with their printing presses. If a government resists the temptation to print tons of money, then it will retain its value. If it “waters it down” by printing tons of it, then it erodes the value of it away. Australia is not quick to print money, yet the U.S. is!
If it encourages “money inflows” into its country through making products that the outside world wants, it ensures inflows into its currency. If it is a country that is heavily involved mainly in the services sectors and itself is a net importer of goods, then there’s huge likelihood that they are setting their currency up for a fall. This is exactly what we have in the U.S.! Yet Australia actually mines and exports many of the world’s most needed commodities: Gold, Copper, Wheat, etc.
If a nation stores up monetary surpluses, it provides a better sentiment for investors and causes “inflows” of money very easily. However, if the country has blossoming deficits, it discourages money flows into the country and actually scares some of it away and prevents other “new money” that would like to enter that country from entering due to them being so worried about their ability to repay their debts. Again, a problem of the U.S. Yet China has huge surpluses.
The ability of investors to trust a government is another huge one. There is a ton of potential money that COULD go into Russia but WON’T go into Russia because you never know what they will do next. Their government is so corrupt and has such a bad image from the outside world of being so shady in their dealings with much of the rest of the world (and their own people/corporations) that it hinders some “inflows” into their currency. Yet Canada and Australia’s governments have great track records.
What a country does with their interest rates has a HUGE effect upon inflows and outflows in a currency. If interest rates are high and headed higher, it generally encourages money to it as investors seek higher yields on their money. However, if a country holds their rates unusually low, then they’re encouraging outflows. Examples of this right now are the U.S. and Japan. Rates are unusually low and thus money is starting to flow away from them once again. Australia and New Zealand were two of the only major countries that weren’t inclined to take their rates near zero percent like most of the rest of the industrialized world, and they have been rewarded the most as things have started to snap back for their financial markets and currencies.
Governments that are “tax friendly” to residents and especially to corporations are likely to see more inflows than those who aren’t. This is why so many companies are moving away from the U.S. as Obama pours on the taxes and they run towards places like Dublin, Ireland. This hurts the dollar and helps the euro!
These are seven huge areas that come to mind where a government plays a huge role in influencing their currency, whether they realize it or not…and many times they don’t (because they’re politicians and not savvy investors!
So the central bank wants a lower Canadian dollar to make it easier on these crucial companies. Will they get it? NO! Oh sure, they may be able to influence the USD/CAD up 300-500 pips…but what is that when the pair has moved 2,700 pips downward and will continue that downtrend?
You see, traders know that the global economy is “on the mend” and as it is recovering, it will consume more oil and other commodities that Canada exports. They also know that the U.S. dollar has been in a broad downtrend since March (according to the U.S. Dollar Index). This broad U.S. dollar sell off isn’t going to change just because the Canadian central bank wants it to.
Oh yeah, but they could go in and “sell Canadian dollars” right? Sure they could…but, it would not be effective and the foreign exchange market would simply laugh at them with the trend and fundamentals going in the favor of the traders and against that of the bank.
Also, traders know that there’s a good chance that the bank is bluffing too. Why? The central bank has abandoned intervention policies ever since 1998. They didn’t intervene when the currency reached a record high in 2007 and or when it’s had its biggest gain since the Korean War during May.
Therefore, there are a ton of years there that the bank did nothing when the currency moved to extremes. So they have no reason to believe that it will be any different this time.
Most of the time, they just “jaw bone” the currency by talking about what they “could” do. However, when push comes to shove, they usually don’t anymore.
They stopped intervening in 1998 because it simply ended up causing even more volatility and ended up making it even more difficult for their exporters to hedge their risks.
If they “talk the pair up”, short the rallies!
Therefore, here’s how I see this playing out on the chart below. Sure, they may “talk the currency up” a few hundred pips or more in the near term. It could happen. However, smart traders are “selling rallies” in the USD/CAD pair because the trend is down and the fundamentals overall, are on the mend. Therefore any bounce upward, is likely to result in another big push downward.
